$ cat ./how-it-works
A technical breakdown of how gabagool22 and distinct-baguette trades Polymarket crypto UP/DOWN bucket markets. Three automated strategies running 24/7 across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.
$ cat ./bucket-markets
Polymarket's crypto UP/DOWN markets are binary contracts that resolve based on whether an asset's price is above or below a strike price at expiry. Each market has two tokens:
UP Token
Pays $1.00 if the asset closes above the strike. Otherwise $0.
DOWN Token
Pays $1.00 if the asset closes below the strike. Otherwise $0.
New markets open every 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and 1 hour across four assets. Because UP + DOWN must resolve to exactly $1.00, any pricing that sums to less creates a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Any pricing that deviates from fair value creates a directional opportunity.
BTCETHSOLXRP5m / 15m / 1h windows
$ cat ./strategies
▶Momentum Trading
The momentum strategy exploits the latency between Binance spot prices and Polymarket contract pricing. When BTC moves sharply on Binance, Polymarket's UP/DOWN tokens take seconds to reprice. The bot detects the move via a real-time Binance aggTrade WebSocket feed and enters a Polymarket position before the market adjusts.
Signal detection uses a configurable lookback window and minimum delta threshold. When the price move exceeds the threshold, the bot fires an order on the corresponding UP or DOWN token.
4 execution modes: single_taker (FOK at ask — default), gtc_at_ask (GTC limit at ask, rests if no fill), single_maker (GTC at bid for maker fees), dual_hybrid (taker on signal side + maker on contra side simultaneously). Each mode trades off fill probability against execution cost. See the parameter tuning guide for details.
▶Market Making
Two-sided quoting on both UP and DOWN tokens. The bot posts resting limit orders on both sides of the spread and profits from the bid-ask gap. The key edge is Binance preemptive cancel: the bot monitors the real-time Binance price feed and cancels resting orders before an adverse price move results in a toxic fill.
When the Binance feed signals a sharp BTC move, the bot cancels its exposed side (e.g., cancels resting UP bids if BTC is about to dump) in sub-second, then re-quotes once the move settles. This dramatically reduces adverse selection — the #1 killer of market-making strategies.
Automatic position rebalancing and on-chain merging via ProxyWallet Factory. When the bot accumulates both UP and DOWN tokens, it merges them on-chain to recover USDC and free up capital.
▶Spread Capture (Arbitrage)
The spread capture strategy exploits a fundamental constraint: UP + DOWN tokens must resolve to exactly $1.00. When the combined bid prices sum to less than $1.00 (e.g., UP bid at $0.48 + DOWN bid at $0.49 = $0.97), the bot buys both sides at the bid for a guaranteed $0.03 profit at resolution, regardless of which direction the asset moves.
This is a risk-neutral strategy — the bot profits at resolution no matter the outcome. Each instance monitors one asset/window combination, checking every tick whether the combined price falls below the spread threshold. Run multiple instances to cover all markets.
$ cat ./architecture
The bot is a single Rust binary that runs as a systemd service on a Linux VPS. Event-driven architecture — the evaluation loop wakes on each Binance aggTrade, not on a fixed timer.
Binance WebSocket (aggTrade)
│
├─→ Signal Engine (lookback, delta threshold)
│ │
│ ├─→ Momentum Strategy ───→ Polymarket CLOB
│ ├─→ Market Making ───────→ Polymarket CLOB
│ └─→ Spread Capture ──────→ Polymarket CLOB
│
└─→ Preemptive Cancel (adverse move detection)
└─→ Cancel resting orders before toxic fill✓Each asset (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) gets its own Binance feed and strategy instances
✓Vendored Polymarket SDK — full CLOB API integration, no external dependencies
✓GTC and FOK order types with configurable execution modes per strategy
✓On-chain merge via ProxyWallet Factory — recovers capital from matched UP/DOWN positions
$ cat ./differentiators
✓Arbitrage trading algo — ~44K lines of Rust. Not a hosted service, not an API wrapper. You own it, deploy it...
✓6.8 GB Historical Data — 11,201 market files across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP at 100ms resolution with embedded Binance klines.
✓Parallel Backtester — 3 fill models (deterministic, probabilistic, latency). Tests thousands of markets in minutes.
✓Pre-Tuned Configs — 10 ready-to-trade configurations for every asset and time window combination.
✓Real-Time Dashboard — dashboard showing live positions, P&L, order flow, and momentum signals.
✓Production Battle-Tested — the same codebase running on the developer's own VPS with $500K+ in verified profit.
$ cat ./deep-dives
Technical details behind each component. Click to expand.
Full strategy docs, deployment guides, and parameter tuningRead the docs →